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2008 ESAR - Multivariate benefit estimation of future vehicle safety systems

Over the last decades the number of traffic accident fatalities on German roads decreased by 77% down to 4968 in the year
2007. This positive development is due to optimisations of vehicle safety, roads and infrastructure and medical rescue issues.
Up to now mostly the optimisations of secondary safety measures lead to this effect on vehicle safety. Since some years more
and more driver assistance systems are available and lead to a further reduction of all accidents. These new systems are often
comfort systems and have not primarily been developed to increase vehicle safety. In contrast to secondary safety systems
primary safety systems are able to mitigate and avoid accidents. So in the future it is important to estimate the benefit of these
systems in reducing accident numbers as well.
Current benefit estimation methods mostly focus on a single system only and not on the combination of systems. In this paper
a new method for a multivariate benefit estimation based on real accident data is developed. The paper describes the basic
method to estimate the benefit of primary and secondary safety systems in combination. With the presented method the
benefit will not be overestimated as it would be by a simple addition of the benefits of single systems. The model will be
validated by a multivariate prospective benefit estimation of different vehicle safety systems in comparison to single benefit
estimations of the same systems. For this the German In-Depth Accident Database is used. The results show the importance
to implement the interactions of safety systems in the estimation process and rate the overestimation by a simple addition of
the single system benefits. The validation includes primary and secondary safety systems in combination. The validation is
done using more than 3500 real accidents which were initiated by cars. This sample out of the GIDAS database is
representative for the current accident situation in Germany.
The paper shows the necessity of a multivariate estimation of the benefit for existing and future safety systems.

18_Hannawald_Multivariate Benefit Estimation of Future_.pdf


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